BALTIMORE — This late in the game, you probably already knew which box you were checking when filling out your ballot in November. With Biden no longer an option, will that change people's minds on whether to vote red or blue?
WMAR-2 News' Elizabeth Worthington talked to Ian Anson, associate professor in the political science department for University of Maryland, Baltimore County, and David Karol, associate professor in the government and politics department at University of Maryland, about the impact of President Biden dropping out of the 2024 race.
"So one thing political scientists have been talking about right now is a theory of politics called the minimal effects model, which is that it seems like in today's politics we have such entrenched opinions about Democrats and Republicans, and we know these candidates so well[...] that virtually nothing can happen that would move people's opinions and attitudes," Anson said. Obviously this changes the race a lot though. So I think it’s going to remain to be seen how voters actually respond, whoever those voters are out there, that small segment of voters who are still undecided in this race, between Trump and whoever that candidate may be. Things could move meaningfully, given this news.
Usually, incumbency is a plus for any presidential candidate. But for Vice President Kamala Harris, less time in the political spotlight may end up working in her favor.
"Because he’s been the president for the last four years, people have a very strong sense of who he is for better or worse. And the attitudes toward him are pretty much fixed. VP Harris is not as well-known, so Democrats can at least hope that she has more upside," Karol said. "Her polling numbers have not been good as Vice President, but because she's a newer face for many people, there's at least a chance that she can make a good impression, whereas I think for Biden, attitudes are pretty much set in stone," Karol said.
If history is any indication, dropping out this late in the game isn't a good sign for Democrats' chances in November. Harry Truman and Lyndon B . Johnson both decided not to seek re-election after poor showings in early primaries. In both cases, Republicans won the white house.
"This is maybe one of the reasons why it took so very long for the Biden camp to ultimately make this decision because there were voices in the party and commentators who were saying, this is a bad move. Look what happened in the past. I don't think you can draw clear parallels to those previous moments," Anson said.
He says the biggest difference this time, is that top Democrats are uniting behind Harris as their nominee, right away. In 1968, for example, there was no clear choice heading into the Democratic National Convention, which led to the most contentious and chaotic convention in modern history.
"I think Democrats were very afraid of the 1968 convention. And we can see right now that the Democratic party elites, I think are doing everything in their power to try to signal that Kamala Harris is the candidate," Anson said.
Now the question is, will this help or hurt former president Donald Trump's campaign?
"I think they're off-balance, because they were ready to run against Biden. They've been planning that for years and years, Trump already ran against him unsuccessfully, but they were ready to run against Biden and talk about how he was too old. Now they have the old candidate," Karol said.
The professors both think it highly unlikely and politically unwise for another high-profile Democrat to jump into the race at this point, given that so many party leaders have already come out in support of Harris.
"It’s possible that somebody jumps in against her, like an attention-seeker, sort of a B-list political figure, but none of the major aspirants are challenging her," Karol said.
Both Karol and Anson stressed there should be no legal or logistical issue that would prevent Harris' name from being printed on the ballot.
"Biden is not the nominee. He’s not renouncing the nomination. He was set to be nominated by the delegates, but it hasn’t happened. He is not on any state ballot today, because he hasn’t been certified as the nominee for the Democratic party. So there should be no issue with ballot access at all," Karol said.
There's nothing that is preventing states from printing out ballots with the new candidate’s name on it, because the candidate technically has not been selected. It’s not until that specific moment at the convention when the candidate is announced and the party formally endorses that candidate that the ballots are able to be printed in those states," Anson told WMAR-2 News.