What a complex storm system we have had to deal with here in Central Maryland this Saturday. Most locations woke up to disappointment with limited snowfall thanks to plenty of dry air leftover from the night before. The dry air stuck around until midday before the secondary push of moisture rolled in. This secondary batch of precipitation remains over the area in the form of sleet and freezing rain creating some problems on the roads and sidewalks especially in areas where these surfaces may have not been treated.
Since sleet and freezing rain remain Winter Weather Advisories have been kept in place for a good majority of the area with the exception of Anne Arundel, Queen Anne's, Cecil, Kent, Caroline, and Talbot counties. In these areas temperatures are holding right around 32 degrees or slightly above that mark. Elsewhere the cold air dam remains firmly entrenched leading to the question of if we will fully transition over to rain later in the afternoon and early evening hours as our precipitation departs.
High resolution models continue to paint the change to rain from the city of Baltimore points south and east. North and west of the city icing concerns will remain as temperatures will rise a degree or two above freezing creating continued concerns on those untreated/elevated surfaces.
The good news is that overnight lows look to rise as winds come in from the west southwest pushing those numbers closer to 40 degrees. At the same time winds look to gusts 30-40 mph creating some drying at the surface before temperatures drop again Sunday afternoon.
Exit time on the mixed bag of precipitation currently sits around 7-9pm this evening from west to east. Clearing will be slow during the overnight period so that is a plus as well with clouds keeping temperatures from falling into a flash freeze situation. Sunday we start warm before the cold air is reinforced late in the afternoon. Highs will be around 40 degrees with overnight lows around 20. Expect some patchy black ice early MLK Day morning with limited rebound in temperatures for the afternoon. The same can be said for Tuesday before temperatures warm again later next week.
The 8-14 day trend continues to suggest limited cold air and more warmth. At the same time the weather pattern remains relatively active with rain not snow but who knows that could change as we enter February which typically yields the most snow in Baltimore. Stay tuned!!
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