From one severe storm threat to another just in time for one of the busiest times of the Spring season Easter. Storms once again look to strike the area late Friday into early Saturday morning with damaging winds, flash flooding, and even the possibility of an isolated tornado. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH is in place from 12pm Friday through 5am Saturday for most of Maryland with the exceptions of the Eastern Shore and western mountains.
The storm systems looks to strike the Deep South and Tennessee River Valley first, giving them numerous severe storms Thursday. Right now a "LEVEL 2 SLIGHT RISK" for severe weather is in place for all hazards such as damaging winds, tornadoes, hail, and flash flooding in those areas as the threat continues overnight.
Meanwhile here in Baltimore we will increasing clouds and a few spotty showers Friday morning before things get worse in the afternoon. A few breaks of sunshine are likely as well pushing temperatures into the mid 70s making things even more interesting when it comes to our severe weather threat.
TIMING
After lunchtime is when things look to get going. Showers and thunderstorms will bubble up from convection earlier in the day off to our south. At the same time a line of storms will be rolling out of the mountains of Maryland during the late evening rush.
This line should arrive to Baltimore around 7-9pm before crossing into the Eastern Shore after that. This is where we could see the worst of the weather when it comes to damaging winds, flash flooding, and even the possibility of an isolated tornado. Just like this past Sunday (April 14th, 2019) any storms that pop out ahead of the line could rotate as well based upon the storing wind field aloft.
THREATS & IMPACTS
Our primary concerns look to be damaging winds in excess of 50 mph and heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. Flash Flood Watches are in place from 12pm Friday through 5am Saturday for most of Maryland with the exceptions of the Eastern Shore and western mountains. Upwards of 1-2" of rain is expected with localized pockets of 3" or more in a six hour time frame leading to the flash flooding concerns.
Models trend the line to come through a little quicker which could reduce the threat so keep a close eye to the forecast. Remember if you see high water don't drive through it.
Besides wind and flash flooding the concern for a tornado or two remains on the table. The threat is nonzero based upon the winds aloft and at the surface moving in slightly different directions to create rotation. This is especially true with storms that can get out ahead of the main line.
Wind though continues to be the biggest concern since above us at airplane level winds are well over 50-100 mph and at the surface gusts look to approach 40mph out ahead and behind the main line of storms, The same main line of storms at any point could pull down those 50-100 mph winds to the surface creating spotty instances of tree damage and even some power outages.
IMPORTANT
Make sure you have a way to get weather information, should any alerts be issued. Our WMAR2News app is free for download from the Apple/GooglePlay store. If you can't get alerts by phone be sure to stay with us throughout the day on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates as storms approach this evening.
