Things have been quiet around here when it comes to severe weather.
But a strong cold front will be approaching our area Saturday and brings our first risk for severe weather in well over a month. The storm prediction center has our area in a level 1 out of 5 for Saturday evening— mainly after 5pm.
Damaging winds appear to be the primary risk, but we can't rule out and isolated tornado. To be clear, most of the atmospheric variables are working in our favor. We will have plenty of clouds around tonight through tomorrow — which will inhibit destabilization by the sun. CAPE or convective available potential energy, will be very low for this type of event. Strong southerly flow ahead of the front at the surface and shifting winds in the mid levels (SHEAR) will be moderate — and that's where our real risk lies. Winds will gust upwards of 45 mph at times along the front.
The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory that goes into effect tomorrow and lingers through early Sunday morning. We will be watching for prefrontal showers and storms —because that's where we have a shot at seeing some rotation. These isolated cells will begin firing up around 4/5pm.
Later that evening a more intense line of storms will coalesce further south/east— and we could see some bowing like indicated in the image below. Strong winds will be the primary threat with that line as it pushes eastward.
#staytuned
