BALTIMORE — The buzz this week was all about the potential for some snow. The models all had signs of a coastal weather system bringing in some wet weather to Maryland, be it rain or snow. The big question at the beginning of the week was what will be the track of this storm.
Currently, the storm is forecast to track through the southeast US as it then begins to ride up the Appalachian mountain chain until it jumps to Central Virginia and rides up the coast after.
As shown above, this track favors a more rainy solution as it brings in warmer air along with the center of the low pressure system. This allows the lower levels of the atmosphere to warm up well above freezing and cause any type of frozen precipitation to melt as it makes its way down to the surface.
So, instead of seeing a few inches of snow, we will now see some early snow that will get washed away from all of the rain that we see later in the afternoon which could be up to an 3/4 of an inch.
If this system were to track just 100 miles to the east, we would be talking about a much more different scenario.
You can see in the graphic above that the ideal track for snow is a system that rides along the coast the entire time. This not only brings in the high amounts of moisture needed for lots of snow but also helps drag in colder air as the winds come in from a more northerly direction and help keep temperatures on the colder side of things.
These setups are what brought us the blockbuster snowstorms back in the winter of 2009-2010 and 2016, where each storm saw over a foot of snow throughout most of our state.
The issue with these setups is that they need multiple pieces to align correctly for us to see a monster snowstorm. There has to be cold air in place, a high pressure system to keep it over us and slow down the coastal low, the low to follow the correct track, and it needs to be able to intensify as it sits over the warmer Atlantic Ocean. Which means things need to be close to perfect for it all to come together.
But the season is only about halfway done and there is still plenty of time to see some snow make its way to the Mid-Atlantic. Until then, stay tuned!
