A warm front will lift northward through the afternoon and evening hours, bringing the chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of it. We will likely start to see showers develop around sunset from the southwest.
Latest model guidance has the more potent storms focused off to our southwest around northern and central Virginia, the DC metro, and parts of southern Maryland later tonight. The storms will really start to fire up shortly before midnight as the warm front slices across the state from the southwest. This will keep the chance for convection (the transport of moisture and heat) around overnight.
The Storm Prediction Center has areas highlighted in green: the Baltimore metro, the Hereford Zone, western and southern Maryland, and parts of the Eastern Shore under a Marginal Risk (level 1). Any isolated storms that move through our viewing area may produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall. A greater Slight Risk (level 2) for severe but short-lived scattered storms will be for areas highlighted in yellow. This shows that the better chance for flash flooding, stronger wind gusts, and large-sized hail will be for areas off to our south and west. The threat for an isolated tornado is very low but not zero so everyone needs to stay weather aware today/tonight.
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