Well after a week of ups and downs with the weather models regarding our potential winter storm, snow lovers in Maryland are left with another disappointment. A good majority of our models have come into agreement on a southern solution leaving Virginia and North Carolina in the storm's cross-hairs. Extreme southern Maryland though may be grazed late Sunday night into early Monday morning as the storm departs.
THE SETUP
Strong high pressure will save the day for those who hate snow in not only Central Maryland but those living north along the I-95 corridor. This expansive high pressure system will act as a fence with drier air shunting the northern edge of the storm preventing it to advance north while shifting it west toward the Carolina Coast early Monday morning.
SNOW TOTALS PERSPECTIVE
Even with that said there is still a chance for snow in places such as Charles, St Mary's and Calvert Counties along with those along the lower Eastern Shore. The heaviest snow though will be in southern Virginia and the mountains of western North Carolina where 1-2 feet of snow is expected. In a historical perspective some western North Carolina towns could receive record breaking snow.
For instance Asheville, North Carolina's all time heaviest snowfall from a single storm is 18.2". This came during the March 12-14th 1993 Superstorm and may be challenged with this weekend's storm according to the Euro model. The problem with some of these totals and maps over the last few days is that they don't take into account the ice threat. Any sleet or freezing rain that falls could cut these totals down leading to a high probability of accumulations in most locations including the highest peaks remaining below 2 feet even with the amount of ample moisture available.
TIMING (LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY MORNING)
Below is the Futurecast from the European, RPM, and NAM. All three models continue to show a system that is just far enough north to bring a chance of light wintry precipitation to areas south of Baltimore and Washington DC late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. "
Such locations would include those living south of US-50 (i.e Salisbury, St. Mary's, Easton, Cambridge & Ocean City).
Flakes though cannot be ruled out in Annapolis in Washington DC with such models as the Canadian(GEM MODEL) and NAM hinting a much more northern impact.
MARYLAND IMPACTS
Any precipitation that falls will be minimal but could be just enough to cause a few slowdowns in the areas highlighted above (Southern MD & Lower Eastern Shore).For Baltimore, Annapolis, Frederick, Columbia, Westminster, Bel Air, and Washington DC it will be the cold to contend with instead of snow.
Cloudy skies will prevail Sunday with highs in the 30s and a few evening flurries before sun returns Monday bumping temps closer to 40 degrees.
Much of next week remains dry and below normal temperature wise before our next storm later next week. As of now it looks to be rain not snow with a warming trend according to the long range pattern. Sorry snow lovers it looks like we will have to continue to wait for the big one. Remember the season is just getting started!!!
