A sloppy and slippery storm system moves into Central Maryland right after sunrise Sunday morning and looks to continue well into the evening hours. This storm system will bring a variety of precipitation from snow to rain and even the dreaded threat of ice.
TIMING:
Snow begins before sunrise Sunday morning with an icy mix just to the north and west of the city after 9am. By lunchtime, warm air aloft will transition the ice over to mainly rain. Icing concerns though will remain across Frederick, Carroll, northern Howard, & northern Baltimore counties through the early afternoon (after 2pm) as temperatures float around 32 degrees even with the warm air takeover. A light glaze is likely in these counties mentioned above while the rest of the area sees wet roads during the afternoon hours.
The mountains of Western Maryland along I-68 from Cumberland to Oakland will keep the snow/ice around for most of the day. Slick and slushy travel concerns are likely through the afternoon. By late Sunday evening, we anticipate most of the precipitation exiting the area as gusty winds out of the northwest bring in colder and drier air to begin the new workweek.
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL/ICE TOTALS
Here is where the word "complex" plays into the forecast. With a variety of precipitation from rain to ice and even snow mixing together it becomes hard to nail down totals. Early thoughts suggest that much of the area will see nothing when it comes to snowfall. Our northern counties such as Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, Washington, northern Howard, and northern Harford could receive a dusting to 0.5" before the rain washes it all away. Roads could be slick to start as the ground remains fairly frozen thanks to the cold temperatures of the last 2 morning. Ground temperatures though turn in our favor by travel time to those Super Bowl shindigs as warmer air rushes in leading to wet conditions with hydroplaning concerns.
The big difference would be in Western Maryland, where the snow will be falling most of the day. In particularly the higher hilltops above 2500 ft across Garrett County could see totals of 2-4" through Monday morning.
In the Baltimore metro area and Eastern Shore this is a rain event with a light glaze of ice remaining north/west of the I-95 corridor.
Overall, models are still trying to figure out total precipitation totals. It appears that we could see anywhere from .50-.75", but could see higher totals. This is something to pay attention to as higher totals could result in messier weather.
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